Can the Scottish team finally end their New Zealand curse?

Match action
New Zealand implemented multiple adjustments to the team that defeated the Irish team

International Rugby Series: Scotland v New Zealand

Venue: Scottish Gas Murrayfield, the Scottish capital Date: Saturday, 8 November Kick-off: 3:10 PM GMT

Things were simpler then. The fourth meeting of Scotland and New Zealand. A heaving Murrayfield, a 0-0 draw, winter of 1964. Celebration when the whistle blew. A pitch invasion to symbolize the home team's momentous achievement.

After defeating three home nations, the All Blacks had at last been stopped in a Test.

A contemporary reporter was nearly overcome with excitement. "A game that no-one who saw it will ever forget," he reported breathlessly and somewhat optimistically. "Where Scottish rugby preserved British pride."

Leaving the stadium that evening, home supporters would have had hope for the future. Multiple efforts to defeat the All Blacks and zero victories, but clear signs that success might be imminent.

Three years later, the All Blacks defeated Scotland. Five years after that, they beat them again. Three years further on, identical outcome. Five more years went by and, indeed, the pattern continued.

Modern Encounters

Twenty games since then later. Twenty All Black wins. From Christchurch to Dunedin, Auckland to Cardiff - the landscapes have changed but not the outcomes.

During his tenure, Gregor Townsend has ended losing runs in Paris, Cardiff and Twickenham, but this challenge is different. Over a century of matches. One of sport's greatest hoodoos.

Squad Updates

In recent years the comprehensive defeats have narrowed to closer margins in 2014, 2017 and 2022, but New Zealand consistently prevail.

Through their brilliance, their power, game management, they secure victory.

As match day approaches where the optimism that supporters maintained for Scottish success is probably beginning to fade. Optimism meets historical reality.

Missing Players

Recent updates revealed that Zander Fagerson hadn't made it. For Scotland's hopes it was a significant setback.

Fagerson hasn't played since April, but he's exceptional and if available then the long gap without a game would not have been a massive concern.

During modern rugby early in matches, Fagerson's engine keeps running. Unmatched playing time in the Six Nations.

Squad Depth

They're without Huw Jones but his replacement is in excellent form with Northampton. There's no such quality replacing big Zander. D'Arcy Rae is an admirable tighthead, his international experience consists of limited game time.

And when Rae is finished, his replacement takes over. Millar-Mills is a decent prop, evidence is lacking that he's All Black-beating class.

Coaching Choices

The coach has made unexpected selections, partly expected, some curious. Steyn's tactical awareness replaces Duhan van der Merwe's more one-dimensional power.

The flanker selection is unconventional, Rory Darge starting on the bench. There's no Andy Onyeama-Christie in the 23.

Past Encounters

Match moment
Darcy Graham was a try-scorer in the 31-23 defeat to New Zealand in 2022

Against Ireland, the All Blacks secured the opening match of what they hope will be a Grand Slam tour. They took an age to get going, despite numerical advantage, but their last-quarter demolition secured victory.

That and Ireland's defensive shape, their attack, their line-out and their scrum collapsing.

By the Numbers

Despite late-game surges, the final quarter is not where the All Blacks do most of their damage. In all of their Tests going back three years, they've scored 87 tries in opening periods and fewer after halftime.

Strong opening performances, excellent second quarters, 26 in the third and 34 in the fourth. They start aggressively.

Required Performance

Against Scotland in 2022, they struck twice in the initial stages. Establishing early dominance, victory seemed assured. Scotland fought back impressively to hit them with 23 unanswered points.

The clear message is that, figuratively speaking, Scotland must put the boot on the throat from kickoff - and keep it there.

Over the last decade, successful opponents have needed to score in the high-20s. Scotland have got into the 20s only twice in their past 13 games against the All Blacks.

Conclusion

Everything has to go right for Townsend's team. Everything. If they start butchering chances early on then forget it. A yellow card? A high penalty count? A battered scrum? The game is lost.

But what if everything does go right? A blistering beginning. Vocal support. Electric atmosphere. Ruthlessness. Russell being Russell. Darcy Graham's brilliance.

Fantasy rugby, perhaps. Consistent performance has been elusive from the Scottish team that would be sufficient against New Zealand. If the capability exists, it's about time it came out; a century is sufficient.

Kaylee Price
Kaylee Price

A tech enthusiast and writer with a passion for demystifying complex innovations and sharing practical insights.